MCDM'11 - paper no. 9
MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION AIDING IN PROJECT PLANNING USING DECISION TREES AND SIMULATION
Nowak Bogusław, Maciej Nowak
Abstract:
A good plan is fundamental for a projects success. Inaccuracies in planning are reported to be among the main reasons of a projects fiasco. Planning means making a variety of decision. As these decision refer to the future, so when faced with them, the decision maker has also to face uncertainty. The selection of a new project or a group of projects, as well as decision how to implement them, involve prediction and comparison of future outcomes. In real world, not every possible future outcome is known with certainty. Thus, decisions made during the project planning process are usually based on past experience, either rationally of intuitively with some degree of uncertainty, and thus are made under risk. The aim of the paper is to present a simple, yet comprehensive, methodology for project planning that permits the consideration of both multiple criteria and risk. Our approach combines decision trees, simulation modeling and stochastic dominance rules. An example is presented to show the applicability of the procedure. It is based on the experiences of a company providing solution for the railway industry.
Keywords:
Project planning, decision tree, simulation, multiple criteria decision making.
Reference index:
Nowak Bogusław, Maciej Nowak, (2011), MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION AIDING IN PROJECT PLANNING USING DECISION TREES AND SIMULATION, Multiple Criteria Decision Making (6), pp. 163-187
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